Startup Financial Modeling

Build 3-5 year startup financial models with cohort revenue, layered costs and runway that hold up in investor diligence.

A complete methodology for building 3-5 year startup financial models with cohort-based revenue projections, layered cost structures (COGS, S&M, R&D, G&A), cash flow analysis, and runway calculation. It replaces flat-growth guesswork with retention-curve modeling and a three-scenario framework so your projections survive investor scrutiny instead of collapsing under the first hard question.

$15 one-time
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Prices include 20% VAT. · Forged on real agency work · one-time, no lock-in

  • Type Skill
  • Category Business & Strategy
  • Delivery Email · instant
  • License One-time
Run preview
forgehouse, startup-financial-modeling

Inside the run · no black box

See the actual work before you buy it.

A flat growth percentage is a story; a cohort model is a forecast. Revenue builds month by month through retention curves, costs carry fully-loaded headcount, and three scenarios reveal which assumption actually moves the runway.

  1. Pins down the business model and its revenue drivers first: subscription tiers for SaaS, GMV and take rate for marketplaces, traffic times conversion times order value for e-commerce, billable capacity for services, because the driver set defines the whole model skeleton.
  2. Builds revenue cohort by cohort, never as a flat growth percentage: each month's new customers are tracked separately through a retention curve and multiplied by ARPU, with expansion and contraction layered on top, so the model reflects customer quality over time.
  3. Models the cost structure by behavior: COGS as a percentage of revenue, sales and marketing tied to CAC, fixed versus variable separated, and a headcount plan where every role costs 1.3 to 1.4 times base salary fully loaded and arrives with 3 months of recruiting plus 3 months of ramp.
  4. Projects monthly cash flow from those inputs: beginning cash, collections respecting payment terms, expenses paid, ending cash, and from that the burn rate and the runway in months, with the funding need surfacing wherever the balance goes negative.
  5. Computes the metrics investors actually check: CAC, LTV and payback, Burn Multiple, Magic Number and Rule of 40, then runs three scenarios (conservative, base, optimistic) by flexing acquisition, churn and contract value, plus a sensitivity pass to find which single assumption moves ARR and runway the most.
  6. Validates before presenting: growth rates achievable, unit economics above the sustainability line, burn multiple reasonable, revenue per employee rising, and the fundraise sized to reach the next milestone plus a six-month buffer.
Use cases · what happens when you plug it in

One power source. 6 lines out.

startup-financial-modeling · core

core active · 6 lines

  1. Building a fundraising model for a seed or Series A round

    ✓ building a fundraising m…
  2. Forecasting MRR/ARR from cohort acquisition and retention

    ✓ forecasting mrr/arr from
  3. Calculating burn rate and runway with payment-term timing

    ✓ calculating burn rate and
  4. Modeling headcount and fully-loaded hiring plans

    ✓ modeling headcount and f…
  5. Running conservative/base/optimistic (P10/P50/P90) scenarios

    ✓ running conservative/bas…
  6. Sizing a raise against milestones plus a runway buffer

    ✓ sizing a raise against m…
Benefits · what you walk away with

Yours to keep.

Drag time forward. Watch what stays.

Forever

That's what owning means.

The rented stack

ai writing tool: subscription

expired · access lost

analytics suite: subscription

expired · access lost

design platform: subscription

expired · access lost

(nothing left)

Your forge

  1. Defensible projections that hold up in investor diligence

    license: perpetual
  2. Clear visibility into when cash runs out and how much to raise

    license: perpetual
  3. Realistic growth assumptions tied to retention, not hope

    license: perpetual
  4. A single model that flexes across SaaS, marketplace, e-commerce, and agency

    license: perpetual

subscriptions expire · deeds don't

What's included · the full manifest

Everything in the box.

Pick a piece up. Watch it work.

Cohort-based revenue formula (MRR = cohort size x retention x ARPU)

part 01 of 06 · in the box

6 parts · one working system · ships instantly by email

Who it's for

This wasn't forged for everyone.

  • Not for you if you'd rather rent a tool than own one.
  • Not for you if you want someone else to run your stack.
  • Not for you if you're happy guessing.
Still here? Good.

Founders, finance leads, and operators who need an investor-ready financial model rather than a fragile single-line spreadsheet.

then this was forged for you.

Works with

Universal by design: these run in any AI. Delivered in the open Agent Skills + MCP format (native in Claude); ChatGPT, Gemini, Cursor and Copilot adapt the same files their own way.

  • Claude Native format
  • ChatGPT Adapts via open standards
  • Gemini Adapts via open standards
  • Cursor Adapts via open standards
  • Copilot Adapts via open standards
Questions · still in the air

Catch what's on your mind.

the air is clear. nothing between you and the forge.
catch a spark: the forge will answer

  1. My company is not SaaS. Does the model still fit a marketplace, e-commerce store, or agency?

    Yes, that flexibility is built in. The package ships business-model templates for SaaS, marketplace, e-commerce, and services, all driven by the same cohort engine: cohort size times retention times ARPU. You swap the revenue mechanics, the cost structure and runway math stay the same.

  2. Free financial model templates are everywhere, why would one of those collapse in front of an investor?

    Most templates project revenue as a flat growth percentage, which collapses under the first hard investor question. This methodology builds revenue from cohort acquisition and retention curves, then stress-tests it with a three-scenario framework using plus or minus 30% acquisition and 20% churn variation, so the assumptions are visible and defensible.

  3. Will it tell me what my growth rate or churn will actually be?

    No. The inputs come from your own data or your honest estimates; the model structures them, it does not predict your market. It also cannot guarantee a raise, what it gives you is a model that survives diligence rather than one that breaks in the meeting.

  4. How is it delivered?

    By email right after purchase: ready to run, downloaded instantly, no setup wait.

  5. One-time or subscription?

    A one-time purchase; no subscription or hidden fees. VAT (20%) is included.

  6. Can I get a refund?

    As a digital product, it can’t be refunded once downloaded. That’s why we show exactly what’s inside and who it’s for, right here.