Market Sizing Analysis

Size any market with TAM, SAM and SOM from three cross-checked methods, numbers investors actually trust.

Calculates Total Addressable, Serviceable Available, and Serviceable Obtainable Market (TAM/SAM/SOM) for any startup or business opportunity using three complementary methodologies: top-down, bottom-up, and value theory. It triangulates results so your market numbers are credible enough to survive investor scrutiny.

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Prices include 20% VAT. · Forged on real agency work · one-time, no lock-in

  • Type Skill
  • Category Business & Strategy
  • Delivery Email · instant
  • License One-time
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forgehouse, market-sizing-analysis

Inside the run · no black box

See the actual work before you buy it.

A TAM slide is only as strong as its weakest assumption. The market gets defined in writing before any math, bottom-up leads because investors trust it, and a 30 percent disagreement triggers interrogation, not averaging.

  1. Defines the market in writing before any number: the problem being solved, the target customer, the product category, the geographic scope and the time horizon, because a fuzzy definition makes every downstream figure meaningless.
  2. Chooses the methodology by market maturity: bottom-up (customer count times unit revenue) as the primary because investors trust it most, top-down (industry reports narrowed by filters) for triangulation, and value theory (cost of the problem times willingness to pay) when the category is too new to have data.
  3. Calculates TAM with the chosen method, then narrows to SAM by applying explicit filters in sequence: geography, product capability, customer segment and channel access, each filter documented as a percentage with its source.
  4. Estimates SOM as a realistic 3-5 year capture: 2-5 percent of SAM for a new entrant, shaped as a beachhead segment where 15-20 percent dominance is achievable rather than a thin slice of everything.
  5. Triangulates: if bottom-up and top-down disagree by more than 30 percent, the assumptions get interrogated, not averaged. Customer counts are checked against databases, pricing against real ACVs, and the result against public company revenues in the space.
  6. Documents every assumption with a source or an explicit assumption tag and presents the three tiers together with the logic chain visible, leading with the bottom-up number because a defensible chain beats an impressive headline figure.
Use cases · what happens when you plug it in

One power source. 6 lines out.

market-sizing-analysis · core

core active · 6 lines

  1. Sizing the market opportunity for a startup or new product

    ✓ sizing the market opport…
  2. Calculating TAM/SAM/SOM for a fundraising deck

    ✓ calculating tam/sam/som…
  3. Triangulating top-down and bottom-up estimates

    ✓ triangulating top-down and
  4. Estimating a market with no existing data via value theory

    ✓ estimating a market with
  5. Defining a beachhead segment to win first

    ✓ defining a beachhead seg…
  6. Pressure-testing market assumptions before strategy or investment

    ✓ pressure-testing market…
Benefits · what you walk away with

Yours to keep.

Drag time forward. Watch what stays.

Forever

That's what owning means.

The rented stack

ai writing tool: subscription

expired · access lost

analytics suite: subscription

expired · access lost

design platform: subscription

expired · access lost

(nothing left)

Your forge

  1. Present market numbers investors actually trust

    license: perpetual
  2. Catch unrealistic estimates before they undermine your pitch

    license: perpetual
  3. Size brand-new categories where no research report exists

    license: perpetual
  4. Link a defensible SOM directly to your revenue projections

    license: perpetual

subscriptions expire · deeds don't

What's included · the full manifest

Everything in the box.

Pick a piece up. Watch it work.

Three-tier TAM/SAM/SOM framework with clear definitions

part 01 of 06 · in the box

6 parts · one working system · ships instantly by email

Who it's for

This wasn't forged for everyone.

  • Not for you if you'd rather rent a tool than own one.
  • Not for you if you want someone else to run your stack.
  • Not for you if you're happy guessing.
Still here? Good.

Founders, analysts, and strategists sizing market opportunity for fundraising or business planning.

then this was forged for you.

Works with

Universal by design: these run in any AI. Delivered in the open Agent Skills + MCP format (native in Claude); ChatGPT, Gemini, Cursor and Copilot adapt the same files their own way.

  • Claude Native format
  • ChatGPT Adapts via open standards
  • Gemini Adapts via open standards
  • Cursor Adapts via open standards
  • Copilot Adapts via open standards
Questions · still in the air

Catch what's on your mind.

the air is clear. nothing between you and the forge.
catch a spark: the forge will answer

  1. We are creating a new category with no analyst reports. Can it still size the market?

    Yes, that is what the value-theory methodology is for: you estimate from the value your product creates and what buyers would pay, then sanity-check it against a bottom-up build. The triangulation step exists precisely for markets where no ready-made research number exists.

  2. Why not just cite a big top-down number from an industry report?

    Because investors discount single-method numbers. The framework runs top-down, bottom-up, and value theory side by side, triangulates the results, and applies red-flag checks against the common mistakes. That is what lets a TAM/SAM/SOM slide survive diligence questions.

  3. Does it come with live market data or research subscriptions?

    No. It is the methodology: the three-tier definitions, formulas, industry templates for SaaS, marketplace, consumer, and B2B, and a six-step process from market definition to validation. The inputs, your pricing, segment counts, and any reports you hold, come from you.

  4. How is it delivered?

    By email right after purchase: ready to run, downloaded instantly, no setup wait.

  5. One-time or subscription?

    A one-time purchase; no subscription or hidden fees. VAT (20%) is included.

  6. Can I get a refund?

    As a digital product, it can’t be refunded once downloaded. That’s why we show exactly what’s inside and who it’s for, right here.